We’re not fortune tellers, but at Bitergia, we’re pretty good at analyzing trends. In 2024, we dove deep into the data of various technology ecosystems. And we provided analytics and insights to support development activity and community growth within those ecosystems.
Now, with our sights set on the future, here are 8 predictions for the open source world in 2025:
Prediction 1: Blockchain Ecosystems: Open Source Takes Center Stage
Key takeaway: Expect to see more blockchain companies embracing open source in 2025, focusing on community building and sustainable development models. We’ve seen a surge of interest from blockchain companies looking to leverage open source for innovation and ROI.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: Over the past year, Bitergia has been working with blockchain companies like Cardano and Hedera to analyze their ecosystems. In fact, this past year, more companies have reached out to us for this kind of analysis than ever before. Why now?
With open source now mainstream, we believe companies are realizing that the principles of open source are key to building strong communities and driving innovation and commercial success. They’re investing more in new open source solutions.
In 2025, expect this trend to continue. We’ve already started working on a report about the top crypto coin projects to come out this year–keep an eye out for the top 12 dashboard, which will focus on core blockchain layers to provide unique insights.Plus, our partnership with Intersect is exploring a new “Paid Open Source Model” for web3 sustainability.
Prediction 2: Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: The Need for High-Quality Data
Key takeaway: The OSI’s official definition of “Open Source AI” in 2024 was a major milestone, sparking important discussions about licensing and collaboration. However, we believe generative AI has and will continue to have limitations when it comes to analyzing open source project health, at least into the near future.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: These models are excellent at dealing with data, but they don’t yet know how to seek out and curate high-quality data. At Bitergia, we deal with high-quality open source data every day. The tool at the core of Bitergia–GrimoireLab–retrieves, organizes, and analyzes software development data.
Recently, we’ve seen GrimoireLab being used as a tool for research in the AI space. We’ve also seen customers producing insights from the data we provided by using existing AI models, and we predict an increase in the use of our tools for AI/ML research and insights generation.
We have access to high-quality data and are interested in working with AI models, providing the data sets to train them. Although the current models are not yet able to do quality open source assessments, we see this as a path that the industry should pursue.
Prediction 3: Open Source Program Offices (OSPOs): A Resurgence on the Horizon
Key takeaway: In 2025, we expect OSPOs to have a resurgence as companies realize their business value.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: We have a great deal of experience supporting organizations in establishing and managing OSPOs, enhancing their engagement with various open-source ecosystems. While many companies closed their OSPOs in 2024, declaring open source so mainstream that dedicated offices were not needed, we believe OSPOs provide a critical competitive edge. They drive open source strategy, ensure compliance, and secure the software supply chain. That’s why In 2025, we expect OSPOs to innovate how companies support open source and secure the software supply chain.
Prediction 4: InnerSource Initiatives: Continued Growth and Hybrid Models
Key takeaway: InnerSource adoption will rise to new levels in 2025 as companies see the benefit of the added collaboration and innovation. We also anticipate the emergence of hybrid models, blending InnerSource with other practices like Agile and DevOps.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: In our work helping companies adopt open source methodologies internally, we’ve observed that interest in InnerSource has gained momentum. Gartner supports this conclusion, recognizing InnerSource as an emerging trend in the software engineering industry. In September 2024, Gartner wrote, “Digital product managers face increasing pressure to deliver innovation quickly into their shared platforms. To this end, DPMs can use InnerSource to fast-track development and leverage resources from across the portfolio.”
Further, InnerSource Commons’ “State of InnerSource Survey 2024” revealed that a major motivator for adopting InnerSource was the “growing emphasis on reusable software adoption.” In other words, efficiency gains are a major driver in the shift towards InnerSource, and these motivations will only continue to grow. We have started to see companies blending the InnerSource approach with other practices like Agile and DevOps to scale teams, deconstruct silos, promote developer well-being, and accelerate innovation.
Prediction 5: Open Source Supply Chain Security: Focusing on Project Health
Key takeaway: In 2025, companies will see the need to prioritize the health of open source projects as a cornerstone of their security and compliance strategies.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: In 2024, open source in the software supply chain gained attention. The attack on xz utils revealed how unhealthy open source projects can be an attack vector. Further, with new legislation like the European Cyber Resilience Act (CRA) emphasizing supply chain security, companies are taking notice.
We’ve spent much of 2024 deep in analysis of project health and resilience in the supply chain. Seeing the developing need for a tool that helps companies reduce their risk of costly attacks, we set out to develop a risk model to assess and mitigate risks associated with open source dependencies. You can read more about Bitergia Risk Radar and our recent work with ING to develop this software security solution in our article “The Hidden Risks of Open Source: How Bitergia is Changing the Game.”
Prediction 6: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) in Open Source: Quiet Persistence
Key takeaway: Despite the fact that many companies have reduced their DEI commitments in 2024, DEI efforts will still quietly persist in 2025.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: Bitergia has advocated for and measured DEI within open-source communities, striving to create inclusive environments across various ecosystems. In 2024, we saw many companies reducing their DEI efforts, but we also saw dedicated advocates continue to push for progress in open source, though less visibly than before. We expect that code of conduct violations will continue to be addressed without much attention in 2025. Meanwhile these advocates will keep preparing for a societal shift in embracing DEI topics again in the future.
Prediction 7: Automotive Linux: The Need for Software Supply Chain Insights
Key takeaway: In 2025, we predict more automotive companies will seek out solutions to gain visibility into their software development processes.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: In 2024, Bitergia provided analytics to support the development and adoption of Linux-based solutions in the automotive industry. Helping companies enhance collaboration and innovation. This has been a focus for us because we’ve seen that even as automotive companies become increasingly reliant on software, they still lack visibility into their complex software supply chains.
When it comes to their core business and their physical supply chain, automotive companies have a great deal of business intelligence–from full control of the supply chain to the factory floor and distribution network. But when it comes to understanding their software development and supply chain–often patched together and sourced from many suppliers–there is a long way to go. But the advantages of knowing how the software is developed are huge: with that knowledge you better address issues and invest resources. Finally, they can center developer’s well-being and achieve reliable software production. New legislation like the CRA is also pushing these companies towards more supply chain visibility and reliability.
These are the reasons why we expect to see more automotive companies to begin working to solve this visibility problem.
Prediction 8: Software Development Teams: Navigating a Changing Landscape
Key takeaway: We expect significant changes in how teams write and manage software.
Here’s what we’ve been seeing: We have extensive experience in providing software development analytics to teams across various ecosystems, and we’ve seen some changes in teams’ concerns and approaches. Software is becoming a regulated industry, which puts new pressures on developers. Gone are the days when companies could patch together a solution, put it out into the world, and walk away from long-term responsibility to users. Now, they are responsible for generating SBOMs and for securing the software over time. We’ve been working hard (and will continue to do so in 2025) to help teams to manage these new challenges.
Conclusion: The Future of Open Source is Data-Driven
When we reflect on the open source trends of 2024 and look forward to 2025, we see an evolving landscape of increased legislation and changing software development management. With all this change, one thing is for certain: data-driven insights will be crucial. At Bitergia, we’re excited to continue supporting open source communities and companies with expertise, analytics, and insights to help them thrive.
This blog post was written by Diane Mueller, Julia Lawson, and Georg Link, with help form Daniel Izquierdo and Miguel Ángel Fernández.
